This blog is focused on the politics and social news of the 58th District of Illinois (Lake Bluff, Lake Forest, Highwood, Highland Park, Deerfield, Northbrook, Riverwoods, Bannockburn and Glencoe) and serves as a discussion group for concerned residents of the District and the State of Illinois who want to change the direction of our broken state government and improve the lives of all Illinoisans.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

McCain Democrats versus Obama Republicans

There has been much lamenting of late of the impending doom of the Republican Party in the face of the Obama tide sweeping across our great land. I came across this interesting piece online posted on the Politico website.

Much to the disappointment of many of the partisans it seems to show the numbers are telling us a different story. Senator McCain is very appealing to Democrats, independents and moderates and is doing a better job wooing those groups to his candiacy than is either Senator Obama or Senator Clinton.

The meaning of all of this? It shows that the people reject the idea that one party (The Democrats in this case) has a monopoly on reform and good government and stands as a lesson to those of us in Illinois that with the right message and genuine care and concern for the people we serve we can win in this state again.

Here is the article:

GOP Counting on McCain Democrats
A new analysis of March polling data suggests that John McCain's cross-party support surpasses that of either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton.

According to data provided by the Gallup Organization at Politico’s request, in a hypothetical contest between McCain and Obama, McCain wins 17 percent of Democrats and those leaning Democratic, while Obama wins 10 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners.

In a potential contest with Clinton, McCain wins 14 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaners while Clinton wins 8 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners.

By way of comparison, exit polls in 2004 reported that George W. Bush won 11 percent of Democrats and John F. Kerry won 6 percent of Republicans.

The new analysis, calculated from a compilation of Gallup’s daily polls between March 7 and 22, seems to indicate that there are more “McCain Democrats” than the much-ballyhooed “Obama Republicans” — or “Obamacans,” as they are sometimes referred to.

The polls were aggregated at Politico’s request as part of an effort to assess the cross-party appeal of each candidate. The compilation created a larger sample size, allowing pollsters to more accurately decipher voting patterns by party affiliation.

McCain’s potential to win more crossover votes than either of the Democrats, a finding that also surfaces in surveys conducted by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics and in private GOP polls, could upend the political calculus for the November general election.

Equally important, Gallup finds that McCain wins independents against either Democrat — 48 to 23 percent against Clinton, and 40 to 31 percent against Obama.

In 2004, exit polls showed independents cast 26 percent of the vote, splitting their support evenly between Bush and Kerry.

Both the Republican National Committee and the McCain campaign are depending upon McCain’s potential appeal to Democrats and independents to compensate for the depleted Republican ranks.

“Democrats currently have a lead in voter identification; it’s axiomatic that you have to look beyond your party’s base to get to 50 percent,” said Frank Donatelli, the deputy chairman of the RNC.

Late February polling by the RNC, passed along to top officials in the McCain campaign, also found that more Democrats said they would vote for McCain than Republicans said they would vote for Obama, according to an RNC operative and a senior adviser to the McCain campaign.

“There will be something in the range of a quarter of Democrats available or accessible to him when the this Democratic contest is over but that doesn’t mean we won’t have to work for them,” said a senior McCain adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

That estimate may prove optimistic, though not wildly.

A Fox News poll released last week also found that McCain wins 18 percent of Democrats while Obama wins 11 percent of Republicans. McCain maintains his advantage among independents in the Fox poll, as well.

Clinton, according to the Gallup findings, hemorrhages slightly fewer Democrats than Obama. But Obama more than compensates for Clinton’s strength among Democrats with his greater capacity to narrow McCain’s advantage among independents. Private polling conducted by Republican strategist Tony Fabrizio reflects the same trend. “There’s going to be McCain Democrats,” Fabrizio said, adding that it was only a question of whether they will be a small sliver of the political left or a movement toward McCain.

If Obama is the Democratic nominee, the McCain adviser said the campaign will target male and female blue-collar white Democrats, a group viewed by Republicans as Obama’s soft spot.

“They already sense that [Obama] may be too liberal,” the adviser added. “They tend to also agree with McCain on the war and on social issues and we’ll have to satisfy them that McCain agrees with them on the economy.”

McCain’s appeal to Democrats has some Republican strategists envisioning a Ronald Reagan-like road map for the 2008 race. Today, most of the so-called Reagan Democrats have become independents.

“One similarity between 1980 and 2008 is you have a very tough Democratic primary,” said the RNC’s Donatelli, who served as the political director in the Reagan White House. “After that ended, there were a lot of bruised feelings and Democrats who would not vote for the winner.”

Gallup published results Wednesday that showed evidence supporting a similar scenario for 2008. Twenty-eight percent of Clinton’s supporters say they would vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic nominee. The data, aggregating the same period of March polling, also showed 19 percent of Obama’s supporters pledging to back McCain if Clinton wins the nomination.

“The bulk of the Democrats you would try to appeal to are not Harvard-educated lawyers who are feminists. They’re working-class Democrats that you have more of a shot at getting. And the core of that appeal is social conservatism, right to life, Second Amendment and obviously national security,” Donatelli said.

Comparing Reagan to McCain, Donatelli said “both of them were and are viewed as mavericks, and a lot of that is character, and a lot of that is the persona of the individual. And it’s issue-based too, because you’ve challenged the orthodoxy on occasion.”

Democrats say they must undercut McCain’s maverick image in order to shore up their flank.

“People tend to confuse maverick with moderate,” said Steve Rosenthal, a Democratic leader in mobilizing voters. Rosenthal said Democrats must position McCain as a conservative and introduce them to the “real John McCain” on issues ranging from abortion to the war in Iraq to the environment.

“If Republicans are successful in defining John McCain as a moderate who can work across party lines and is a straight talker, then we will be in a real battle to win Democrats in some of these swing states,” he continued.

“Against McCain,” Rosenthal said, “it’s clear this is going to be an extremely close race. Anybody who thought that Democrats were going to waltz to the White House in 2008 is crazy.”

www.politico.com

Monday, March 24, 2008

Key to Winning in November is "Suburblicans"

This is an intersting article I read today from the Republican Leadership Council. It is s funny piece on the voter base that put Ronald Reagan into office and helped change the course of America back in the 1980's. The point of the story for the 58th District (and Mark Kirk's 10th Congressional) is that as a party we need to woo the suburban independent middle of the road voters. This is what we, the Republican Party of Illinois MUST do to re-establish ourselves as the "good guys". There are some lessons to be learned from this. We must offer a message of hope and reform to the suburban voter who is turned off by Blagojevich and the politics of destruction practiced by the current Springfield "leadership". We have to win these "suburblicans" back over to our side. Enjoy.

"Raw Politics: Horton Hears a Suburblican
In the great book of Republican lore, the story lives on, read in reverent tones to tiny Red Staters even in their youngest years: On the eighth day, Ronald Reagan reached into the suburbs, the burgeoning fields of new homes filled with families yearning for hope, and he picked up an average working-class Democrat.

Cradling him gently in his mighty hand, and speaking in soothing tones, Reagan said to the trembling voter, "I have terrible news. Your party has lost its way. Democratic leaders are no longer the defenders of middle-class jobs, values and security. They are pandering to special interests. Don't you want someone to be your president again?"

The voter cried "Yes!" and in that moment, the Suburblican was born.
Suburblicans: Former Democrats who believed their party had abandoned them, and who came to be Republican voters. They put Reagan into office twice. They helped elect George Bush. And now, Sen. John McCain must see if he can summon the mighty Suburblicans to work their magic once again.

In many ways, McCain may be the right man for the job. His moderate and much ballyhooed maverick ways appeal to many of these voters. His positions do not force them too far to the right, where they would have to cozy up to the hard-core conservatives. Yet his steely resolve and record of service project a certain stability that Suburblicans enjoy.

He faces real challenges. The war, which McCain supports, is disliked by a great many Americans. Yes, there has been much progress in the past eight months. Yes, public opinion is swinging back toward at least neutral.

But it's still a sore point.
The economy is staggering, and McCain himself has said economic theory is not his strong suit.

The current president (a Republican, in case you haven't heard) is about as popular as outgoing New York Gov. Elliot Spitzer is, well, I guess, in his own home. That won't help.

There also is this: Remember, sometimes Suburblicans can undergo a remarkable metamorphosis. While holding onto virtually all their beliefs, expectations and principles, they can magically change into Suburblicrats. Sen. Barack Obama knows it's true. He has been doing well drawing those same moderate, independent and cross-over voters who McCain wants.

Sen. Hillary Clinton is firmly bolted to her Democratic base, so you might want to count her out of the Suburblican sweepstakes, and truth be told, her chances of cleaning up with that crowd do not look good.

But if we could predict with certainty where the Suburblicans will land, we could call this election tomorrow. Because the simple truth is, in a race this tight, these swing voters -- maybe more than the bases -- will decide who wins.
The defining characteristic of the Suburblicans right now is that they are migrating; great swarms of them are darkening the skies of the election, unwilling to make it clear which candidate they will ultimately favor.

But when the Suburblicans finally perch, and shake off their molting feathers, we shall see what emerges: New Suburblicans? New Suburblicrats? Or some fantastic new political animal no one has yet imagined.

Friday, March 21, 2008

Recent Cook County Sales Tax Hikes Hurting 58th District

The recent sales tax hikes by Cook County and the State of Illinois are hurting Illinois residents, especially merchants, small businesses and the consumers who buy their goods. Especially troubling is the impact on so-called border areas--those areas of Cook County that are near the border of other counties. In the 58th District that includes the towns of Glencoe and Northbrook. How will this extraordinary Cook County tax increase affect the merchants in northern Cook County? We'll have to wait and see but evidence is mounting that many border towns are poised to loose sales to less taxing towns in friendlier counties. This is especially true with big ticket items such as cars, home electronics and appliances. Most interesting is the current legislation which would allow certain areas of northern Cook County to break away and form their own county (Reagan County perhaps?) To be sure this legislation faces long odds with the Chicago machine firmly in control of the State House and Democratic party. Here is an interesting article on efforts of House Republicans to require Cook County to hold the line on future tax increases.

GOP seeks to bring reform to Cook County


Legislators want to limit Cook County board's power

By David Beery | Daily Herald Staff

Published: 3/18/2008 12:11 AM
Using Todd Stroger's new budget as a rallying cry, Republican lawmakers are calling on Springfield to restrict Cook County's ability to raise taxes and add workers.

Cook County Board President Todd Stroger two weeks ago pushed through a budget that more than doubles the county sales tax and adds more than 1,000 workers to the payroll.

On Monday, GOP state Reps. Suzie Bassi, Angelo "Skip" Saviano and Michael McAuliffe denounced the higher sales tax as an unnecessary burden on residents facing higher costs of living on all fronts.

"Instead of tightening the county's financial belt, Todd Stroger chose to double the sales tax on people who are already struggling," McAuliffe said.

Each of the three Republicans has filed a bill aimed at restricting the Cook County Board's budgeting authority.

All three proposals figure to face rough sledding in the General Assembly, where both chambers are led by Cook County Democrats. Steve Brown, spokesman for House Speaker Michael J. Madigan, said narrowly written restrictions will be not get far.

"Now, if they plan to make these measures applicable to all home-rule units of government, then there might be some discussion," Brown said.

The Republican lawmakers said they are open to talks on applying the limits to other home-rule units of government. As introduced, though, the bills apply only to Cook County.

The idea from McAuliffe, of Chicago, would require a three-fifths, super-majority vote for any tax or fee increase by the Cook board. Under that provision, Stroger would have needed 11 of 17 commissioners' votes instead of the nine that sealed the budget Feb. 29.

Stroger spokeswoman Ibis Antongiorgi said a super-majority requirement would be "essentially a vote to shut down county government."

A measure from Saviano, of Elmwood Park, would install in Cook County an independent personnel director -- the goal, he said, being to halt politically connected hiring and promoting.

Bassi, of Palatine, filed a bill calling for details of any proposed tax increase and the annual budget to be Web posted at least a week in advance of a board vote.

Saviano said these restrictions should appeal to Democrats as well as Republicans.

"I'm hearing from constituents who tell me they feel disenfranchised by their Democratic officials over this sales tax," Saviano said.

Bassi said the sales tax is particularly damaging to businesses in her district -- the county's far northwest corner -- because residents can easily shop in nearby Lake County to avoid the higher sales tax.

The county's portion of the sales tax will increase by a full percentage point -- from .75 to 1.75 percent -- and will give Chicago the nation's highest big-city sales tax, at 10.25 percent. The sales tax will raise an estimated $426 million annually, more than enough to cover a $230 million budget deficit.

On Monday, Antongiorgi called the budget vote an act of political courage, adding that "President Stroger is proud of those commissioners who were willing to take a stand to place our residents above narrow political concerns."

For their part, the GOP legislators drew support from Jerry Roper, Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce president, who said the tax increase will result in job losses and reduced business investment in the county.

Congressman Kirk Fights for Homeowners

I found this article in the Pioneer Press. Congressman Kirk is looking at innovative ways to help homeowners stave off foreclosure:


Kirk unveils foreclosure deterrent

March 20, 2008
By TODD SHIELDS
U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk, R-10th, wants to restart a Depression era federal program that he believes will help stave off home mortgage foreclosings.

In 1934, Congress established the Home Owners' Loan Corporation at a time when nearly 50 percent of all home mortgages had defaulted. Kirk said that for the next three years, the corporation saved mortgages by purchasing them from banks at a discount, followed by refinancing financial terms to homeowners.

He outlined the program March 10 at Chambers of Biz 6, an association of business people and community leaders in Palatine, Rolling Meadows, Arlington Heights, Buffalo Grove, Des Plaines, Hoffman Estates, Mount Prospect and Wheeling.

"The Home Owners' Loan Corporation would manage these homes in trouble and could allow millions of Americans to keep their homes," Kirk said at the Meadows Club in Rolling Meadows.

"We should find the most successful precedent in history and repeat it," Kirk said, referring to the corporation.

In 1951 when HOLC closed, it returned a $14 million profit to the taxpayer, according to press release issued by Kirk.

He said when first formed, HOLC relieved homeowners from high interest payments, imposed less cost on the federal treasury and protected investment banks on home loans.

In the bill, Kirk proposed the loan corporation have $25 billion in funds for emergency home mortgage relief.

Under Kirk's legislation, low-income individuals could receive a credit up to $2,000 annually and low-income families up to $4,000 a year

Tax Swap Legislation is Bad for Our Schools

Property Tax Swap Legislation Bad for Local Schools and Taxpayers, By Tim Stratton

The Illinois General Assembly is considering legislation that would increase state income taxes on residents. The legislation, Senate Bill 2288 would increase income tax rates by 67% according to the Pioneer Press. The legislation increases taxes on individuals estates and businesses and promises a property tax reduction.

This is wrong for the state, wrong for Lake and Cook Counties and wrong for our District. Increasing the tax burden on our residents, small business owners and entrepreneurs will only drive us deeper into financial malaise. We need to create incentives for investment and job growth, not drive it away.

The tax-swap bill gaining traction, Senate Bill 2288, is sponsored by allies of Senate President Emil Jones, who long has pushed for higher income taxes to raise money for districts with less than strong tax bases.

The schools in our District are some of the best in the state, if not the nation. We need to protect these assets and make sure our kids have the best education possible. A tax swap is a bad idea because it will put the state in charge of education spending. I pledge to keep your local property tax dollars in your local school districts.

If the state government gets it hands on your money that will be a disaster. They have already demonstrated a complete lack of fiscal responsibility, just look at the CTA and the unfunded state pensions. It’s a mess and we don't need to rob the children of this state. There is no guarantee that the tax swap will result in lower property taxes. What will happen is an immediate income tax increase and then the property taxes will increase again over time. This is nothing more than a power grab at the expense of the suburbs.

Unfortunately my opponent is not showing leadership on this issue and that is one of the reasons I am running for State Representative. Karen May told the Pioneer Press that, "Whatever (legislature leadership) comes up with, I have to be sure they do not hurt our area."

I applaud Karen for her concern about our area but frankly the question we need to ask is why is she waiting for leadership to come up with something?" If the voters of the District elect me to be their next State Representative. I will seek to be a part of that leadership. We need a State Representative who will tell Springfield what we need, not one who just reports back on what leadership is doing.

Tim Stratton

Mark Kirk is in a Tough Race Too




Mark and I agree on many issues.

Your's Truly...banner from my campaign webpage at www.timforillinois.com

Republicans for Environmental Protection...we can be environmentally friendly AND economically prudent





Check out their website at www.rep.org

Republican Economic Incentive Plan

PRESS RELEASE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Tim Stratton
Tuesday, March 18, 2008 tim@timforillinois.com


State Representative Candidate Announces Support for Economic Incentive Plan

Glencoe – Tim Stratton (R-Glencoe) announced his support today for House Minority Leader Tom Cross's (R-Oswego) economic incentive plan and urged the Democratic controlled Illinois House of Representatives to take quick action on the plan. The plan, introduced at a Friday press conference at the Illinois Employment Training Center in Champaign by State Rep. Chapin Rose, (R-Mahomet), and House Republican Leader Tom Cross, also aims at freezing property tax bills for some seniors, and increasing tax credits for businesses.
Stratton said the plan should generate about $10 billion in state money - matched by about $9 billion in federal money - for the building and upkeep of state roads and facilities.
"The State of Illinois has lost over 200,000 jobs in a short amount of time and this plan will allow us to take steps to stem the tide of failing businesses."
Stratton said the plan will contain a tax credit for businesses for job training and investments including research and development, as well as benefits tied to depreciation of assets.
The plan which is still being worked out will directly help those who need it, the middle-class, lower-income working people in the state because it will spur job growth and employment opportunities for those who desperately need work.
Stratton noted that House Republicans are pushing for the state getting a $10 billion capital building bond, which will contain a federal near-match of dollars. That money would go toward improvements in roads, K-12 schools, higher education and state facilities.
According to Stratton, "Congressman Mark Kirk has sent us a wake up call that Illinois risks losing vital Federal transportation money unless we can come up with our matching share. The impasse created by the Democratic controlled state government and my opponent illustrates a lack of understanding of sound fiscal practice. By leaving billions of dollars on the table they are not doing the taxpayers of the state any favors. It is time we put partisan politics aside and work together to move Illinois forward."

###

Illinois Government Among the Worst in Nation

Report Says Illinois Government Among the Worst

SPRINGFIELD -- A messy state budget picture and constant fighting at the state Capitol have earned Illinois poor marks for governmental management and performance from a public interest watchdog group.

The Washington, D.C.-based Pew Center on the States put Illinois near the bottom of its rankings in the report released Monday covering how well the 50 states manage their money, people, information and infrastructure.

Illinois received an overall grade of C, but that's only better than New Hampshire and Rhode Island and tied with six other states in the ratings basement. Illinois also scored worse than the B grades received by each of its five neighboring states.

The governor's office says the report mistakenly focuses more on politics than policy. But an Illinois-based watchdog group praised the report for vindicating its past warnings about an assortment of state government problems.

"At a C, we're overrated," said Ralph Martire, executive director of the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability. "We just haven't gotten it right."

The Pew Center determined Illinois has weaknesses in nine of the 20 areas in which it was judged. It found a strength in only one category: the state's online services and information available to the public.

Weaknesses included the state's budget process, long-term money outlook, training and development for workers and lack of a statewide program for road, school and other construction projects.

The group noted the acrimony between state lawmakers and Gov. Rod Blagojevich that dominated last year and cautioned that officials must clear a "poisoned political atmosphere" to take care of its government problems -- especially "in a state where long-term financial prospects are a bit frightening."

"It can't be easy to manage a state such as Illinois, with huge outstanding bills and troubled revenue streams," the center wrote in its report. "But when the state's leaders are effectively stuck in the mud, the difficult becomes all but impossible."

The Blagojevich administration said the report missed the mark by not reflecting progress made in recent years, such as reducing government employee headcount and improving the budget deficit and overall efficiency.

"We respect the Pew Center's commitment to this project, but unfortunately, the Pew Center chose to focus on politics instead of fiscal facts," said Kelley Quinn, a spokeswoman for the governor's budget office.

Martire said the report hopefully will help persuade officials to do more to deal with budget deficits, construction needs and other nagging structural problems.

"It's time that we've got to deal with the facts," Martire said. "Reality is good. Let's deal with reality."

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Stratton is Right for the 58th District

This is an editorial that appeared in the Pioneer Press today...

"Tim Stratton right for the 58th District"

I would like to introduce readers to a young, successful business and
family man who is the Republican challenger to replace State
Representative Karen May of the 58th District which includes Lake Forest and
Lake Bluff. His name is Tim Stratton. He is a practicing lawyer and
resident of Glencoe, who presently is Treasurer/Park Commissioner of the
Glencoe Park District Board of Commissioners.

Even though Karen May is a fairly well-entrenched incumbent from
Highland Park, having been in the General Assembly since 2001, it was
reported in the Lake Forester on Thursday, March 6 that May is refusing to
agree to a series of town hall debates in each community in the
district. Basically Karen May is refusing to agree to letting the voters of
each village have a chance to question both candidates at the same time.
What is Karen May afraid of?

Karen May is well known and has considerable constituent support in
the 58th District, but voters might not be so supportive of Karen if her
Springfield record were known. Here are several revelations:

1) Karen supported the budgets of the governor that have resulted in
the largest tax and fee hikes in the state's history. This drives
business away and has resulted in Illinois not being competitive for jobs
and investment.

2) Karen was one of only 19 legislators to support Gov. Blagojevich
in his veto of HB6764 which provided property tax relief to homeowners
and seniors. The governor vetoed this bill and Karen May voted to uphold
the veto. This shows how Karen votes in lockstep with this unpopular
and reckless governor and not in the best interests of her district.

3) Karen was recently quoted by the Pioneer Press as saying "we'll
have to review whatever leadership comes up with" with respect to a
proposal to increase income taxes to fund schools at the expense of suburban
school. Karen's statement speaks volumes and exposes her absence of
leadership. Why is Karen May waiting for "whatever leadership comes up
with"? Why isn't Karen part of the leadership? Why isn't she helping to
craft a solution in Springfield?

We deserve a state representative who puts the interests of the 58th
District first and who is part of the leadership, not one who only
reports back on the happenings and then acts powerless to do anything about
them.

Tim Stratton has leadership skills. If elected he will not sit on the
sidelines in Springfield and allow others to craft politics that
adversely affect the 58th District. Tim Stratton deserves your
consideration and vote in November to replace Karen May as our 58th District
representative.

Nancy J. Thorner

Inagural Post

This is the first post to the Change Illinois Blog Dot Com. I am the moderator / creator of the blog and my name is Tim Stratton. I am currently running for State Representative in the 58th District of Illinois. I decided to create the blog to give concerned residents a forum to discuss the serious political issues facing the State of Illinois and the 58th District. By coming together as concerned citizens we can start to change politics in the State of Illinois. Meteoric sales tax increases, fiscal mismanagement, a broken transportation system and a disfunctional State House---how has the State of Illinois arrived at this place and what do we need to do in order to fix it? This is the central question we must ask ourselves. I believe there are good people on both sides of the political aisle--Democrats and Republicans (and Independents too). I believe people solve problems, not political parties. We must put aside the partisan politcs of old and start electing Leaders to state and local government. I am running for State Representative because I am convinced that we can do better. I encourage you to learn more about my campaign and the issues facing the State of Illinois.